EU Scientists Say 2026 Is on Course to Be Second-Warmest Year on Record

Scientists at the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service say 2026 is likely to end as the second-warmest year on record, with climate change caused by human activity and an unusually powerful El Niño driving the rise. In its monthly update, the EU climate monitor estimated that 2026 has a "20 percent chance of tying or exceeding" 2024, the current warmest year in records. It also said temperatures around the globe are "virtually certain" to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels during 2026. The four-year period from 2023 through 2026 is also expected to go beyond the 1.5°C mark, the limit set under the Paris Agreement to reduce the worst effects of warming, according to the bulletin. The report found that last month was the warmest October ever recorded. Average global surface air temperatures were 1.75°C higher than the 1850–1900 pre-industrial reference period. It was the third month in a row in which global temperature anomalies passed 1.5°C. "October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus. "An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities." The figures were released as international delegates gathered in Turkey for the United Nations' COP31 climate summit. The year has been marked by destructive floods in Nepal, severe heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia. Global forecasters have cautioned for months that the present El Niño cycle, which is expected to peak later this year, may become the strongest on record. Last month, the strengthening phenomenon set an all-time temperature high in a key area of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that briefly raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific. When combined with global warming caused by humans, it greatly increases the chance of extreme weather, from long droughts to disastrous floods. Forecasters expect that the weather pattern's lingering effects could help make 2027 the hottest year on record. International treaties reached at the 2015 Paris climate talks sought to keep global warming within 1.5°C. However, United Nations statements suggest that this long-term limit is likely to be crossed within a few years, highlighting the need for sharp worldwide cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.