Aurora CFO says 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030 is a plausible target

Aurora Innovation has set a 2030 goal of having more than 30,000 driverless trucks in operation, and its chief financial officer says that target is realistic rather than just a wish.

The Plan

Aurora expects to end 2026 with 200 driverless trucks, then grow to more than 1,000 by the end of 2027, and surpass 30,000 by 2030. At that scale, the company is targeting more than $5 billion in annual revenue and gross margins above 60% .

Why the CFO Says It Is Plausible

CFO David Maday told TechCrunch that 30,000 trucks "kind of feels like a lot" but is actually small relative to the overall market. The four major truck manufacturers produce between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks each year, and there are over 2 million trucks operating on U.S. roads today .

"I don't think it's aspirational," Maday said. "I think we can do it" .

The Business Model Shift

The key to scaling is a change in who owns the trucks. Right now, Aurora owns and operates its trucks under a Transportation-as-a-Service model, charging about $2 per mile. That model is capital-intensive, so Aurora plans to cap it at around 500 trucks .

Starting in 2027, Aurora will move to a Driver-as-a-Service model. Under this approach, customers buy the self-driving trucks and pay Aurora roughly $0.85 per mile for the autonomous driving technology. This shifts the cost of the trucks off Aurora's balance sheet and allows faster growth .

The Hardware Partner

The next big step comes at the end of 2027, when Aurora's third-generation hardware will be mass-produced by its partner Aumovio (formerly Continental). Aumovio will not only build the hardware but also finance it for Aurora, easing the financial burden. The company will also service and repair the kits for customers .

Financial Milestones

Aurora expects to reach breakeven gross margins in the first half of 2027 with about 500 trucks on the road. By 2028, it aims for positive free cash flow with roughly 7,500 trucks .

Investor Reaction

Despite the ambitious targets, investors have not fully embraced the vision. Aurora's stock fell after the announcement . Maday acknowledged that investors have time to come around, pointing to 2027 as the "unlock" year when the business model shifts and growth accelerates .